Paul Thomas Anderson arrives this weekend with his tenth film, One Battle After Another, which has already garnered some of the best reviews of his career. The last Anderson film to hit the big screen was 2021’s Licorice Pizza, so cinephiles everywhere are excited to see what the prolific director has in store for them next. However, what’s different this time around is that Anderson is working with the biggest budget of his career, and even though the movie is a critical darling and will likely be a huge awards season player, there is more emphasis being put on its need to be a box office hit. Even though some box office analysts seem ready to label the movie a potential flop, none of that will likely matter for Warner Bros., the studio releasing the film, in the end.
Having seen One Battle After Another, it very much has the Anderson aesthetic while also being a bit more accessible than some of his other films. Inspired by the 1990 novel Vineland by Thomas Pynchon, Anderson crafts a very timely tale that feels like a legit battle cry. The film follows a group of ex-revolutionaries who are reunited when a deadly enemy sets his sights on the 16-year-old daughter of one of their own.
There is a lot more going on within One Battle After Another, especially in the topical sense, but at its heart, it’s a story about a father who has protected his daughter from some uncomfortable truths, and now they’re all coming to the surface as the group’s nemesis is using his considerable resources to hunt them down for his own nefarious needs. The film stars Leonardo DiCaprio, Sean Penn, Benicio del Toro, Regina Hall, Teyana Taylor, and Chase Infiniti.
Any concerns about the film’s box office potential didn’t begin until it became public knowledge that the movie would be the most expensive of Anderson’s career. Some trades had it reported as high as $175 million at one point, but Warner Bros. revealed that the film was a still costly $130 million to produce. This is far more expensive than the $2 million spent on Anderson’s debut, Hard Eight, and doesn’t even come close to his previous most expensive effort, Magnolia, which carried a budget of $45 million. The director is typically working with a budget of $15-30 million, so One Battle After Another is certainly an anomaly within his filmography, which made it shocking for some when the film’s budget was revealed.
To put it out there, the highest-grossing Anderson film is 2007’s There Will Be Blood, which grossed $76.1 million globally. $40.2 million of that came from the domestic front, and there is no other movie on his docket that would suggest One Battle After Another will come close to breaking even for the studio, given its high cost. According to those rules, the movie would need to gross about $260-300 million worldwide to hit the break-even point. As of now, the movie is tracking to open between $19-25 million, a figure box office analysts feel isn’t a great start given its budget. All of this may be true, but Warner Bros. likely has bigger plans for the movie, beyond its box office, especially after their run of good fortune as of late.
After coming into the year on a more dire note following costly misfires like Mickey 17 and Alto Knights, alongside a lower-tier, well-reviewed effort like Companion not resonating with audiences, Warner Bros. is now the envy of the major studios. This year alone, their last seven films have opened to over $40 million at the box office, making it a first for any studio to do so.
Their most recent opening came at the start of September when The Conjuring: Last Rites exceeded expectations with an $84 million opening. They began to rebound in April when A Minecraft Movie opened to $162 million and it just kept getting better with the arrival of Sinners ($48 million opening), Final Destination: Bloodlines ($51.6 million opening), F1: The Movie ($57 million opening), Superman ($125 million opening), and Weapons ($43.5 million opening). On the one hand, this seemingly put some pressure on One Battle After Another to follow suit, but the epic success of the studio this year probably took much of that pressure off.
That’s not to say that Warner Bros. wants One Battle After Another to flop by any means, but the recent windfall for the studio likely took away some of the financial need for the movie to perform strongly for them. Had these movies been a string of flops, we’d be singing a different tune about Anderson’s latest, but not only did these movies open strong, but they also had considerable legs, and they performed well globally.
As their biggest earner of the year, A Minecraft Movie cleared $957 million worldwide while F1: The Movie managed to outsell their very own Superman on the worldwide front ($624.3 million versus $615.3 million). Even their smaller-scale efforts like Sinners ($366 million), Final Destination: Bloodlines ($313 million), and Weapons ($263.6 million and counting) played a huge role in their big year. One Battle After Another is their final release of the year, and given their significant turnaround, it can end things for Warner Bros. without box office pressure and with a focus on its long-term goals.
A studio like Warner Bros. knew when they handed over $130 million to Anderson that they were banking on working with a true auteur who could likely guarantee them wins in other areas beyond box office. With a current score of 98 percent on Rotten Tomatoes, One Battle After Another is one of the best-reviewed films of the year, and following its early screenings ahead of its opening, it became clear that the movie is going to be a significant awards season player. It would be smart to bet that this film will be a likely frontrunner for awards, and that will mean a lot to Warner Bros. beyond the film’s box office potential. In fact, it’s bound to be a big awards season for Warner Bros. because Sinners and even Weapons are a part of this conversation.
Let’s not forget that the story isn’t always fully told on opening weekend. Given the reviews, One Battle After Another could have legs that could turn it into a financial hit for the studio. This is one of those long-game films that needs to be discovered over time. Anderson’s name will bring in the cinephiles, while DiCaprio’s name carries weight with moviegoers, which will play a factor in its financial potential. And let’s not forget about names like Teyana Taylor and Regina Hall, which could go a long way to bringing in a more diverse audience who would normally maybe not be interested in seeing an Anderson film. Instead of predicting the potential doom and gloom for One Battle After Another, maybe everyone should look at the bigger picture that goes beyond the film’s box office dollars.
One Battle After Another opens nationwide this Friday.
For more on Movies, make sure to check back to That Hashtag Show.
That Hashtag Show
