The exciting thing about awards season is its unpredictability. There are early favorites, last-minute contenders that step into the ring, and sometimes there are movies that cement their spot and remain there until the season is over. There are also circumstances where movies appear to be awards season/Oscar favorites, only to have their hopes potentially dashed in an instant. This year, there are two films featuring high-profile stars that seemed poised for an awards season journey, but thanks to less-than-desirable box office results, that all might be over now. With other films gaining and maintaining momentum, After the Hunt, starring Julia Roberts, and Kiss of the Spider Woman, featuring Jennifer Lopez in a major supporting role, could be left out of the party, although one of them still might get a last-minute invite.
Before the season started, After the Hunt and Kiss of the Spider Woman seemed like a sure thing. The former comes from director Luca Guadagnino, who just last year scored big with Challengers and is no stranger to awards season thanks to his 2017 film, Call Me By Your Name. In addition to a great eye behind the camera, the film features a solid ensemble cast to back up Roberts, including Andrew Garfield, Ayo Edebiri, Chloe Sevigny, and Michael Stuhlbarg. The movie also has a buzzy hot topic premise that follows a college professor caught in the middle of a sexual abuse accusation involving one of her students and a colleague. When it was announced that it would be premiering (out of competition) at the 82nd Venice International Film Festival, it showed a vote of confidence that After the Hunt was one to watch.
Now, let’s look at Kiss of the Spider Woman. This is a lavish big-screen musical written and directed by Bill Condon, someone who knows his way around the genre thanks to helming Dreamgirls and the live-action Beauty and the Beast, as well as writing the Oscar-nominated adapted screenplay for Best Picture winner, Chicago. Kiss of the Spider Woman is based on Manuel Puig’s 1976 novel, which, in turn, was adapted into a stage musical in 1992. To bring his vision to life, Condon enlisted Lopez, who has publicly stated that she has desired to do a movie musical, to portray Ingrid Luna/Aurora/The Spider Woman, the movie fantasy woman who helps Luis Molina (Tonatiuh) and Valentin Arregui (Diego Luna) escape the harsh realities of their incarceration.
Unlike After the Hunt, Kiss of the Spider Woman was independently financed and premiered at the 2025 Sundance Film Festival in hopes of enticing buyers. Reviews out of Sundance were solid, with Lopez earning early Oscar buzz for what some call a career-best performance and Tonatiuh emerging as a new talent to watch. Ultimately, Lionsgate and Roadside Attractions obtained the distribution rights.
When After the Hunt premiered at the Venice Film Festival, cracks quickly began to show. The reviews for the film were decidedly mixed, although even in some of the harshest reviews, the performance given by Roberts was lauded as one of her best and as a potential Oscar contender. After the festival, the movie sat in the low 60 percent range on Rotten Tomatoes. There was always a chance it could rebound, but it’s best to start higher rather than starting low.
As the movie approached its opening weekend, the score continued to drop, and now it sits with a rotten score of 38 percent with a 38 percent audience score to match. To say some were shocked would be an understatement. Given the director and the cast, reviews of this level weren’t expected. Still, Roberts’ performance was a positive talking point, even though the movie itself was said to be too coy and toothless regarding its touchy subject to make an impact.
Again, Kiss of the Spider Woman found itself in a different position from After the Hunt. Reviews were strong enough out of Sundance for some to consider it an early awards season contender (starting in the low 80s range on Rotten Tomatoes) and if the film itself wasn’t going to be acknowledged as a whole, even though The Academy loves a big musical that is a throwback to the glamour and sophistication of old Hollywood, Lopez’s performance was being singled out as one that just shouldn’t be ignored. She has found herself in this position before with Hustlers.
That film premiered at the Toronto Film Festival, scored stellar reviews, earned her some of her best notices in years, and, when it finally opened, it was a box office hit. All signs pointed to her earning a Best Supporting Actress nomination at the Oscars, given the fact that she landed a nomination at all the major precursors, but she was ultimately snubbed from a nomination at the Academy Awards. It stung then, and it still stings now (likely for Lopez and all of us who think this talent triple threat was robbed for all the wrong reasons).
This time already felt different because Hollywood loves a performance like the one given by her in Kiss of the Spider Woman, and it’s clear that Lopez is pouring every ounce of her talent onto the screen. From singing to dancing to acting, this is a role that allows Lopez to showcase every facet of her skills and prove that the industry, for whatever reason, continues to underestimate her. Throw in reports that she filmed the musical numbers in one take, thanks to the independent nature of the film and the schedule not permitting multiple attempts, this girl laid it all out there for a role she clearly was meant to play. As the movie entered its opening weekend, it was still certified fresh at 77 percent on Rotten Tomatoes.
The silly thing about awards season is that it sometimes doesn’t just come down to talent. Other factors can determine how much a studio will push a movie or performance. Box office can be crucial because if returns are low, a studio likely won’t pump more money into an awards season campaign, and if the studio won’t campaign for you, your nomination chances get lower, although there are exceptions. The upside for a film like Kiss of the Spider Woman is that it began as an independent endeavor, so it was never expected to be a HUGE hit, even with Lionsgate and Roadside Attractions picking it up, but its numbers are still minuscule even by lowered expectations.
During its opening weekend, in 1,331 theaters, it opened to a mere $891,046 in 12th place when it was at least expected to clear $2 million during that time. During its second weekend, it dropped 75.1 percent and was reduced to just 747 theaters, and grossed $318,773. All said, the movie has grossed only $1.6 million domestically, with its grosses last weekend hitting just $9,754. This was a reported $30 million pickup for the parties that chose to distribute the film, likely seeing it as an awards season player. What do they do with it now? Hold that thought…
After the Hunt opened in limited release initially, in hopes of generating some positive buzz, given that reviews weren’t great. The decision seemed like a good one with the movie opening to $216,795 on just 22 screens and a pretty solid $36,132 per-theater average. However, once the movie expanded to 1,238 theaters, the debut proved stronger than Kiss of the Spider Woman, but it still was lower than expected, with $2.1 million in 8th place. Over the weekend, the news got worse when the movie dropped 67 percent to $504,869 to finish in 17th place. To date, the film has grossed $2.9 million, and its days on the big screen are likely numbered.
Of the two movies that shouldn’t give up on some awards season glory, it’s Kiss of the Spider Woman. What has been undeniable is the universal love of Lopez’s performance, and even though the movie as a whole may not garner a ton of nominations, Lionsgate and Roadside Attractions throwing their weight behind her and even for an outside chance for Tonatiuh, could pay off. As the biggest star of the film, Lopez did her job to get the word out about the film.
She was on several major morning and late-night talk shows, as well as doing podcast promotion. Through it all, she showed this was a movie she was immensely proud of. Also encouraging is that many awards season predictions still have her in the running in the Best Supporting Actress category, even if the studio seems to be stagnant, at the moment, when it comes to campaigning for her.
Also, it’s unclear what they wanted exactly from the box office. This is a very niche queer musical adaptation led by three Mexican American performers (a feat that should be celebrated), and it was never going to appeal to EVERYONE. So far, Lopez isn’t doing a ton of campaigning for herself either. It’s possible she doesn’t care as much as she used to, or that the sting from Hustlers is still stinging, and she doesn’t want to get her hopes up again. The movie itself might be out of the running, but Lopez feels like she’s still very much in, despite the film’s box office performance.
After the Hunt might be out entirely. With the movie not hitting its necessary critical notices, combined with its current box office, Amazon MGM Studios might not push anymore, although they could certainly afford it. Would it be worth it to support Roberts’ turn in the film? It’s certainly one of the best of her career, and she eats the role up so it wouldn’t be disappointing if they did, but this might come down to a small window of wait and see. The upside for Amazon MGM Studios is the streaming potential for After the Hunt. Much has been made about adult fall movie offerings stalling at the box office, but a film like this could catch on pretty significantly on their streaming platform if audiences believed the movie didn’t look like something to rush and see on the big screen.
The streaming model is built into their distribution strategy, with Amazon MGM Studios still supporting theatrical but also seeing the money at the end of the tunnel once the movies hit Prime Video. This will open up After the Hunt to more viewers, but how they feel about the movie will go a long way to determine what they decide to do about Roberts and her campaign. The 38 percent audience score on Rotten Tomatoes and a decent but not stellar 6.3/10 on IMDB suggest that word of mouth may have already spoken.
After the Hunt and Kiss of the Spider Woman are currently in select theaters.
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