This weekend, Dwayne Johnson returns to the big screen in a way that no one has seen him before. The wrestler-turned-actor is letting go of stacking up big box office dollars and is flexing his acting muscles in The Smashing Machine, written and directed by Benny Safdie. Johnson takes on the role of former MMA fighter Mark Kerr, and with it comes the opportunity to be in a position he hasn’t found himself in since he began his acting career.
Johnson is earning genuine raves for his transformative turn in the film, and it has been deemed so good that critics believe The Academy should take notice. Given that Johnson has mostly been a box office movie star in films that Oscar voters typically ignore, this might seem an unlikely notion, but all signs point to a second act for the actor that could land him an Academy Award nomination.
The Smashing Machine is based on the 2002 documentary The Smashing Machine: The Life and Times of Extreme Fighter Mark Kerr. Johnson portrays Kerr in the A24 film, and it chronicles a four-year period that represented career highs for Kerr as well as a downfall that involved drugs and a very problematic relationship with his girlfriend Dawn (portrayed by Emily Blunt in the film).
At first glance, the movie travels the typical trajectory of a biographical sports drama, with some critics saying it disappointingly, at times, hits all the usual beats, but the universal acclaim across even the more so-so reviews has been due to Johnson’s portrayal of Kerr. He’s being called a revelation in many circles, and it’s being viewed as a performance that shouldn’t be ignored.
Johnson’s movie career has been defined by his natural charisma. When he was first starting out and still using his wrestling name, The Rock, in his film credits, critics thought he was gunning to be the next Arnold Schwarzenegger. It wasn’t an absurd comparison. Schwarzenegger went from being Mr. Olympia to a movie star while Johnson was coming off huge success with the WWF (now WWE) and was looking to transition into the world of film. Johnson’s mass and stature made him prime for his early action roles in films such as The Scorpion King, The Rundown, Walking Tall, and Doom. Even if some of these movies were lacking, Johnson still emerged unscathed because he was a natural in front of the camera, and he managed to command attention with his presence alone.
Eventually, Johnson settled into the role of box office movie star, helping take major tentpoles such as Fast Five and some of the subsequent sequels to major financial success while he also found a lane leading other box office hits such as San Andreas, Rampage, and Central Intelligence, to name a few. He even found success with another franchise when Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle proved to be a hit, which led the way for the sequel to follow suit. In the 2010s, Johnson’s films grossed a reported $10.6 billion worldwide, making him the highest-grossing actor outside of the MCU and the sixth highest-grossing actor overall. It’s the kind of success that most would dream of, and Johnson certainly rode that wave but a major shift seemed to happen after the release of Black Adam.
When Black Adam premiered to mixed reviews and box office that was viewed to be lacking, given his star power and the DC footprint, the public seemed to put that star power under a negative microscope. Stories about his ego seemed to become more prevalent, even if there wasn’t much proof to back up those claims, and the once larger-than-life movie star appeared to come down to Earth a bit. This is all going to be speculation, but maybe that’s why he sought a bit of a career revamp by taking on The Smashing Machine.
To be fair, according to Johnson, he brought The Smashing Machine to Safdie as a project to do together around 2018-19, but the COVID-19 pandemic put some of its development on hold. In addition to this, during promotion for the film, he has stated that he’s been trying to show what he can do as a dramatic actor for at least ten years. It would be easy to say that he settled into the role of box office megastar because he sold it so well, but that doesn’t mean that he wasn’t itching for something more.
When The Smashing Machine was officially announced in 2023, and it was announced that it would be an A24 release, the collective response seemed to be that Johnson was attempting to chase his Oscar moment. This was only intensified when the first image of the actor was released from the film, and he looked unrecognizable as Kerr. A single image seemed to begin to sway the naysayers regarding Johnson’s true acting potential.
When the film had its world premiere in competition at the 82nd Venice International Film Festival, Johnson was able to prove that the itch he was trying so hard to scratch over the years was worth scratching. In an instant, he became a viable part of the Oscar conversation, but now the question is, how viable will he be as awards season carries on through the end of the year?
Working in his favor, beyond reviews calling his work stellar, is that The Academy likes any actor who steps out of their comfort zone. While he is mostly known as a “blockbuster star,” and that could be viewed with a turned-up nose from some voters, seeing his genuine transformation from tentpole movie star to actor with substance is something they’ll love to celebrate. The hope is that their voices will be louder than voters who show a bit of snobbery when it comes to mainstream action stars. On the one hand, this is a transformative success story they would love to acknowledge, but on the other, the Oscars are still accused of being highbrow and ignoring certain performers, even when they display excellence.
Also, a big factor here is Johnson himself. Over the years, he has been a one-man marketing machine and does the job of a major studio alone when it comes to promoting his work. Now, translate that to a proper Oscar campaign, and Johnson could put himself front and center in the eyes of the voters. Much of this has started outside of the promotion of The Smashing Machine. Johnson himself confirmed that he would be working with Martin Scorsese on an upcoming Hawaiian crime drama, which only signals that he’s sincere about changing his career path. In addition to the Scorsese project, there is also word that Johnson’s other project with A24, Breakthrough, is being circled by director Darren Aronofsky.
Again, this is another sign of Johnson’s new trajectory as an actor, as Breakthrough won’t even feature him in the lead, with the film seeing him taking on the supporting role of the film’s questionable motivational guru. Are these moves specifically strategic for this awards season? Maybe not, but it doesn’t hurt that voters could notice and show that The Smashing Machine isn’t just a one-time shot to gain Oscar attention as some kind of new career notch under his belt.
GoldDerby.com also seems confident in Johnson’s Oscar nomination chances. Currently, he’s ranked fourth with a 59.5 percent show of earning a nomination behind Jeremy Allen White (Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), and Timothee Chalamet (Marty Supreme). To be included with an Oscar winner, Oscar nominee, and Emmy winner shows just how strong Johnson’s odds are here because they believe his work in the movie is strong enough, along with momentum, to earn a slot.
Performances in sports dramas have also gotten acknowledgment from The Academy in the past, with actors such as Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler), Denzel Washington (The Hurricane), Will Smith (Ali), Sylvester Stallone (Rocky), and Robert De Niro (Raging Bull) all landing noms while De Niro ultimately took home the prize.
Putting a potential nomination into question is the reception of the movie itself. The film currently sits fresh at 75 percent on Rotten Tomatoes, which is good, but it hints at some of the praise for the film itself not being universal. It helps that even some of the more negative reviews still praise Johnson, but the movie’s overall quality with the public will likely play a role, too. Box office tracking is all over the place for The Smashing Machine, and, even though it seems silly, box office performance has played a role when it comes to Oscar nominations.
The film is tracking in some corners to open as low as $8 million to as high as $20 million. Pre-sales reportedly aren’t great, but this seems like a movie that benefits from walk-up business rather than advanced ticket sales. Why isn’t the movie tracking like a typical movie starring Dwayne Johnson? Well, it’s a brand of film he hasn’t stepped into before, and even some of his biggest fans could be skeptical. Putting a positive spin on this, notices for Johnson’s stellar turn alone could give the $50 million movie much-needed word of mouth.
When it’s all said and done, Johnson’s chances for an Oscar nomination seem very high, and it’s a strong possibility we’re not too far off from hearing “Academy Award nominee Dwayne Johnson.” Given his dedication to the industry as a whole, even before he was given a chance to stretch his creative wings, it would certainly be deserving. Johnson has proven time and time again that he loves this field and wants to see it succeed on every level. Maybe it’s time for the industry to give some of that love back.
The Smashing Machine opens nationwide this Friday.
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