All before the age of 30, Zendaya has become one of the biggest stars of her generation. Whether it’s through her HBO series Euphoria, which has garnered her two Primetime Emmy Awards and a Golden Globe and is about to start its third season, or through her appearances in high-profile mega blockbusters such as the MCU Spider-Man films and the Dune franchise, she has achieved international appeal that most actresses dream of.

However, what most seem to still wonder about her is if she’s a box office leading lady? With four films coming out this year, she’ll definitely be on the box office radar for pretty much all of them, but the one that will matter the most is this weekend’s The Drama, a film in which she’s the female co-lead alongside Robert Pattinson. Despite leading Challengers in 2024 to box office success, some believe that while she’s popular, the movies she has appeared in and will appear in this year would be successful with or without her because either the IP has muscle (Spider-Man, Dune) or the high-profile director is his own box office muscle (Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey). As the industry continues to search for movie stars that can open films, especially mid-tier films at the box office, The Drama could determine once and for all if Zendaya is the movie star the industry has been looking for.

To be fair, the success of The Drama doesn’t rest squarely on Zendaya since Pattinson is her co-lead and the other big name on the callsheet, but as the lone female lead, A24 is banking that her presence will put butts in the seats. Given the fact that this offbeat dark comedy drama is coming from the indie studio, the marketing was smart enough to center the promotion around the pair and initially sell it as an offbeat rom-com about a couple with apparent wedding jitters (as it turns out, it’s about much more than that). It also doesn’t hurt that it’s common knowledge that this is the first of three films they’ll both appear in together this year, with The Odyssey dropping this summer and Dune: Part Three closing out the year. It can’t hurt to market around the pair getting along so well that they chose to work together more than once in the calendar year.

That being said, in terms of individual box office promise, Pattinson led Mickey 17 last year and despite that film being well received critically, it performed below expectations given its massive budget and, even though he’s grown to be heavily respected as an actor, he hasn’t been touted as the next big movie star that could carry a film on his name alone. Zendaya, however, has had that moniker on her radar awhile alongside the likes of her Dune co-star Timothée Chalamet, who recently carried A24’s Marty Supreme and turned it into their biggest box office hit ever.

One would think that turning Challengers into a success would be enough to prove her box office potential. The romantic sports drama was heavily promoted around her in the film’s trailers, TV spots, and its official poster, and, as she has done with films where she is a part of a bigger ensemble, she pounded the pavement to promote it. During its opening weekend, Challengers pulled in $15 million and topped the box office, which is quite good for a $55 million sports drama, and one led by a female and a person of color.

It was also safe to say that the combination of solid marketing, the film being quite good, and Zendaya’s presence helped it get to that level. This is no disrespect to her co-stars Mike Faist and Josh O’Connor, who are fine actors, but they weren’t the names in the cast. By the end of its run, Challengers pulled in $50.1 million domestically and $96 million worldwide. Not a bad figure for a film that could’ve been destined for streaming in this post-pandemic box office world we live in today. Amazon MGM Studios were smart to bank on Zendaya, but that hasn’t stopped some naysaying about her overall box office potential.

The big argument is that most of her box office successes have been primarily where she’s part of the ensemble of franchise films. This certainly raises her profile being a part of the Spider-Man and Dune franchises, but even if her box office potential is being questioned because of this, the marketing teams behind these films certainly view her as a marketable star to help generate buzz and audience interest.

When Dune: Part One came out in 2021, Zendaya was featured heavily on the posters and used very strategically in the trailers, but her role, which is expanded upon in the follow-up and Dune: Part Three, was essentially a glorified cameo. Not sure if most remember this, but there was genuine frustration from her fanbase who saw Dune: Part One and were disappointed to discover that she only had about seven minutes of screentime, mostly in visions.

The complaints on social media were pretty swift, with many feeling misled by her heavy presence in the marketing. Now, had they read the source material, they would’ve realized that Chani’s role is very minimal in the first half of Frank Herbert’s novel, so her presence in the first film was adequate. That being said, Warner Bros. had to be thrilled knowing that once Dune: Part Two was officially locked in, Zendaya had a fanbase that would clamor to see her and would be thrilled by how expanded her role would be moving forward.

Movie star standards have changed since the days of Julia Roberts, Tom Cruise, Brad Pitt, and Sandra Bullock. Back then, these heavyweights didn’t need to be in a huge ensemble to generate box office noise. Their name above the title of most of their films would be enough to generate audience interest. Those times have certainly come and gone. Now, different standards have to be set to determine one’s box office potential. It can’t be about just one thing anymore. People can get technical about Zendaya’s box office prowess, noting that it is primarily due to franchise and ensemble success. However, she’s still a marketable presence in these films, and she’s one of the few actors or actresses in this industry working today whose name carries weight, even if she’s a part of a larger ensemble project.

That being said, we still have an industry that is in search of modern-day movie stars that remind us of the days of old. Glen Powell found himself in this position after the success of Top Gun: Maverick, Anyone but You, and Twisters, with many suggesting he could be our next Tom Cruise. That chatter has calmed a bit following the less-than-stellar performance of The Running Man and A24’s How to Make a Killing, which only proves that Hollywood is all about your successes until you have a couple of failures that make the industry question your viability. For Zendaya, her leading lady hit with Challengers was in 2024, and it’s in the rearview mirror. The industry is no doubt paying attention to how The Drama performs to determine if they want to officially crown her as the industry’s top female movie star.

All signs point to The Drama overperforming over the Easter holiday despite its polarizing subject matter. Pre-sales were strong once they went online, and some box office analysts suggested that it could have the second biggest opening for A24 following Marty Supreme ($27.1 million over four days). The film, which is certified fresh at 82 percent on Rotten Tomatoes, just pulled in $1.7 million in Thursday night previews, which is A24’s third-best preview night following Civil War ($2.9 million) and Marty Supreme ($2 million). Keep in mind, The Drama isn’t expected to blow the roof off the box office. It’s just supposed to perform well in terms of its budget ($28 million). With some suggesting a weekend between $13-20 million, should word of mouth be positive, that wouldn’t be a bad start at all.

At the end of the day, Zendaya won’t have to worry about her ability to be cast in anything because she has become a very likable and marketable presence that also happens to be extremely talented. No one is questioning her ability to line up projects, but it certainly doesn’t hurt your status when you also prove you can open a movie on your name alone. Zendaya may not even want the movie star label, but should she prove herself to be a box office draw without the aid of an ensemble, it will no doubt open even more doors for her, and The Drama is the first test of that in what is the start of a pretty damn good year to be Zendaya.

The Drama is now playing in theaters nationwide.

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