This weekend’s box office finally gave us a real event picture again, even if the results were a bit dampened from what was expected. The chart was led by Avatar’s return, followed by a cluster of mid-range debuts fighting for oxygen, while Zootopia 2 quietly proved they still have life left in them. It was a busy box office, but not a clean one.
Avatar Fire and Ash Opens Big, Just Not That Big
Avatar Fire and Ash debuted at number one with $88.0 million. That is a massive opening by any reasonable standard, but expectations matter, and this landed below where I was predicting, and overall tracking for the movie. I had this closer to $100 million, and missing that mark changes the narrative slightly. Audiences still showed up in force, yet this is not the overwhelming cultural moment some assumed was guaranteed.
The real story will be legs. James Cameron movies are built for endurance, not just opening weekends; this also has the added benefit of the attached trailers for Avengers: Doomsday. If this behaves like prior Avatar releases, the softer debut will barely matter in the long run. If it drops harder than expected, then this opening becomes a warning sign instead of a footnote.
David Delivers a Solid Second-Place Debut
David opened to $22.0 million at the box office, which is a respectable result in a weekend dominated by a mega franchise. This is the kind of number that does not generate headlines but absolutely counts as a win for a mid-budget faith-based release. It carved out its space without being crushed, and that alone is an achievement in this market.
The Housemaid Finds an Audience
Right behind it, The Housemaid pulled in $19.0 million in its first weekend. This is a strong showing for a thriller that lives or dies on curiosity and word of mouth. It did not explode out of the gate at the box office, but it did exactly what it needed to do to stay relevant heading into week two.
The SpongeBob Movie Search for SquarePants Plays the Family Card
The SpongeBob Movie Search for SquarePants opened with $16.0 million, which feels very on brand. These movies are never about massive debuts. They are about steady family traffic and long-term play. This one will likely hang around quietly while flashier titles burn off their audience.
Zootopia 2 Keeps Hanging On in Week Four
Rounding out the Top Five, Zootopia 2 added $14.5 million in its fourth weekend. That kind of hold speaks volumes. The initial hype phase is long over, and families are still showing up. Disney has another endurance player on its hands, and those are far more valuable than quick splash openings.
Next Week’s Predictions
Next weekend is not about a new number one at the box office, but it will reshuffle the middle of the chart in a meaningful way. Anaconda is tracking between $20 million and $30 million, and I am firmly on the high end of that range. With Jack Black and Paul Rudd carrying the marketing, this feels like the kind of broad studio release that outperforms cautious tracking models. Clearing $30 million is absolutely on the table, and it should comfortably land in second place.
Marty Supreme is pacing for a quieter debut in the $10 to $15 million range, with $12 million feeling like the most realistic outcome. Song Sung Blue is technically tracking higher, between $10 million and $16 million, but that upside feels optimistic considering Focus Features general lack of promotion. This looks far more like a $10 million opening driven by a specific audience rather than a breakout. Nothing flashy next weekend, but the results should show where audiences not locked into Avatar: Fire and Ash are leaning towards.
As always, we’ll find out next week.
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